Against my better instincts, I have written some notes on how human probability judgements work and what you should expect from surveys that ask people to guess what proportion of the population is transgender.
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Against my better instincts, I have written some notes on how human probability judgements work and what you should expect from surveys that ask people to guess what proportion of the population is transgender. I hope never to speak of this matter again
https://blog.djnavarro.net/posts/2025-09-21_probability-judgement/
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Against my better instincts, I have written some notes on how human probability judgements work and what you should expect from surveys that ask people to guess what proportion of the population is transgender. I hope never to speak of this matter again
https://blog.djnavarro.net/posts/2025-09-21_probability-judgement/
@djnavarro It's fascinating that people would be that far out.. It makes sense most people only guess at percentages when asked, but 'What percentage of people live in New York Vity' being 30% seems quite bizarre (Unless the other 70% are zombies).
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